for efficiently incorporating the coupled ocean– Forecast of the genesis parameter up to seven days is also generated on real time using the ECMWF model output (available at http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Analysis.htm). Cover change strategies of north Chennai industrial area are analysed and discussed. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermo dynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. TCHP was, at every grid point from seven days prior till the genesis, shear of horizontal winds was computed based on 200, were obtained by removing the daily means based on the, reference period from 1979 to 2017. Cyclone Ockhi, formed on 29 November 2017 over the, Lakshadweep Sea, south of Cape Comorin, is the first, very severe cyclone to form in this region after 1925. While many genesis potential indices are used for climatological monitoring and prediction of cyclogenesis globally, their skill in subseasonal prediction of, Join ResearchGate to discover and stay up-to-date with the latest research from leading experts in, Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. Preprint of the article submitted to Earth Science Reviews. This paper describes the development strategy of the CPS and performance skill of the system during 2013 for seven cyclonic disturbances. Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Modulating Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal, Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index for Bay of Bengal During Peak Post-Monsoon (October-November) Season Including Atmosphere-Ocean Parameters, Role of upper ocean parameters in the genesis, intensification and tracks of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal, Evaluation of official tropical cyclone landfall forecast issued by India Meteorological Department, The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Impacts on Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Activity, Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment, Tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and it's application over the north Indian Sea, Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and a Rapid Intensification (RI) index, The NCEP/NCAR 40-years reanalysis project, CHANSE: Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment for water management under uncertainty in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, IndOOS, the Indian Ocean Observing System, Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020), Springer Nature (Open Access). By using Landsat images, the area (Vann Island) was calculated from the year 1973–2015 with analyzing tools of Qgis and Saga Gis. Cyclone Ockhi is likely to gain a wind speed of upto 120 kmph by Friday morning. While traversing the southern part of the Bay of Bengal, favourable conditions established it to consolidate into a cyclonic storm on 29 th December of 2017 and devastated parts of Srilanka and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu. Blue, from 28 November to 1 December 2017. Kozhikode: Bodies of three more fishermen, who died in Cyclone Ockhi, has been found off Beypore coast on Wednesday morning. This study examines the influence that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have on the MJO and low-frequency large-scale circulation, and establishes how they modulated, The north Indian Ocean accounts for 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually. Over the study period (1989–2010), this offshore island witnessed the erosion of 6476 hectares. Also described is a general hill-climbing algorithm which can be used with any measure of structure to attempt to climb to the optimum partition. The study focuses on two study areas: San Juan in Puerto Rico, which was affected by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, and Sarpol Zahab in Iran, which was one of the towns affected by an earthquake in November 2017. The Indian Navy has launched search and rescue operations in southern part of the state. We develop a novel algorithm to identify and classify clouds and cloud shadow, SPARCS: Spatial Procedures for Automated Removal of Cloud and Shadow. It, attained a maximum wind speed of 85 kt (43.7 m s, maintained the strength of a cyclone for five consecutive, days. The present analysis using a modified-GPP shows, that along with atmospheric conditions, the ocean surface, and subsurface also played a significant role in cycloge-. From 4 December 1500 UTC, cyclone Ockhi. Tropical cyclones are a common and devastating natural disaster in many coastal areas of the world. The genesis potential parameter developed by Kotal et al. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the CPS for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the north Indian Seas. Volcanic activity, cyclone etc., Cyclone Ockhi 1) Introduction The recent Cyclone Ockhi was the most intense tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea since Cyclone Megh in 2015. Despite the small fraction of cyclones, some of the most devastating cyclones have formed in this basin, causing extensive damage to the life and property in the north Indian Ocean rim countries. A large percentage of the world’s population is concentrated along the coastal zones. It con-, tinued on the same track till 4 December 1500 UTC. Colour denotes the propagation in different months. The main focus of the study is to develop a model that could be used for disaster planning and management. One of the major cyclones to hit Lakshadweep was tropical Cyclone, Ockhi, which was an intense cyclone that devastated parts of Sri Lanka and India in November–December 2017 and was the most intense tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea since Cyclone Megh in 2015 (Murakami et al., 2017).The ninth depression and the third and strongest storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Ockhi … intensify from a depression to a cyclonic storm. requires some ingredients, such as, response, incident mapping, establishing priorities, developing action plans and implementing the plan to protect lives, property and the environment. for cyclone Ockhi, in comparison with the climatological These erosion and accretion processes played an active role in the changes of coastline during the study period. Multispectral Landsat images were processed to extract and. The committee understands that forecasting rapid intensification of cyclones remains an area of concern. Recently th, struck by type 3rd strong OCKHI cyclone on 30th November, speed during the onshore impact of the cyclone is about, Cyclones are called as Hurricane when it formed in the North, Ockhi cyclone. The 12 hourly track forecast by MME (with error 68 km at 12 hr to 187 km at 120 hr), and intensity forecast by SCIP model (with error 5.9 kt at 12 hr to 19.8 kt at 72 hr) are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The LTE does not show any significant improvement for 24-hr forecast during the same period. Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index for Bay of Bengal During Peak Post-Monsoon (October-Novembe... Verification of forecasts of IMD NWP based cyclone prediction system (CPS) for cyclones over the nor... An Improved Cyclogenesis Potential and Storm Evolution Parameter for North Indian Ocean. It is found that 32% of all very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) and all super cyclonic storms (SUCS) underwent RI phase at least once during their lifetime. The death toll in the Ockhi cyclone that hit the Kerala coast mounted to 66 with more bodies being recovered even as the Centre assured the state government that … The PCC algorithm along with the composite image contributed the highest accuracy and lowest error (0.5%) in estimating areas of disturbed forestlands. Most of the severe cyclones are forming over the UOHC range between 40–80 kj/cm2 in the Bay of Bengal. The IGPP is a revised version of Kotal‐Genesis Potential Parameter (KGPP) implemented by India Meteorological Department (IMD) for short‐range operational cyclogenesis prediction over NIO. The project will use the River Gandak sub-basin, which has been impacted by these issues, as a case-study catchment for process-understanding. Cyclone Ockhi in November 2017, was the first very severe cyclone to form over the Lakshadweep Sea since 1925, resulting in a death toll of 844 in India and Sri Lanka. Spectral band and their properties of Solar irradiance, Wavelength and Resolution, All figure content in this area was uploaded by MUTHU SAMY, All content in this area was uploaded by MUTHU SAMY on Feb 14, 2019, Conscientious Computing Technologies, April 2018, pp. Thus, the modified GPP which incorporates upper, , Phase diagram of Madden–Julian Oscillat. Sri Lanka. b, Propagation of space-time filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies from August to December 2017. Cyclone Ockhi damaged house in Kanyakumari. Results showed that the change detection techniques exerted apparent influence on detection results with an overall accuracy varying between 51% and 86% and a kappa statistics ranging from 0.02 to 0.72. The track length of the cyclone was 2538 km. Sea surface temperature (SST) varies significantly in the presence of tropical cyclones (TCs). In addition to the atmospheric parameters from ocean-side, UOHC and stratification appear to be the best parameters to examine the intensification and movement of the cyclones during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons over the Bay of Bengal. dynamic parameters included in the estimation of GPP, since low wind shear favours cyclone formation as it, thermodynamic parameter included in its calculation, as it, provides atmospheric instability necessary for the deve-, these atmospheric variables important for. Two series of numerical experiments were conducted by using a nonhydrostatic global atmospheric model with observed (OBSSST) and climatological (CLMSST) SSTs. Lakshadweep, South Kerala and Tamil Nadu are likely to be hit by heavy rainfall. UOHC and S are the dominant factors during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. Of the Rs 2,000 crore fund, Rs 584 crore has been allocated for port development, Rs 150 crore for rehabilitation of families and Rs 100 crore for satellite network. An integrated Remote sensing and GIS study has been conducted to estimate impact of Ockhi on Landuse and Landcover of Kanyakumari District. Cyclone Ockhi, predicted to pass over the Lakshwadeep islands and veer away from mainland India will now turn and head towards parts of coastal Maharashtra and South Gujarat, says the … on the methodology adapted from Wheeler and Hendon, In order to compare the role of the ocean and atmospheric, conditions on the genesis of cyclone Ockhi, we estimated, fied-GPP which incorporates ocean conditions. Bangladesh is one of the top vulnerable countries to the climate change and the adverse impact on the country will be catastrophic because of convergence of climate change, poverty and large population. It is well known that the frequency of cyclones is about four times higher over the Bay of Bengal when compared with the Arabian Sea. It is centered at Latitude 19°N and Longitude 71.3°E, around 260 km south­southwest of Surat and 140 km west of Mumbai. Cyclone Ockhi continues to weaken gradually and is now seen as a Deep Depression over east-central Arabian Sea. unusual long track was steered by upper-level winds. These maps are used to assess the area of four types of classes which are Water, Barren, Change in maximum surface wind (kt/day) during the period 30 November–5 December 2017. . In our study, we generate coherence images, and classify them into areas of ‘change’ and ‘no-change’. conditions provided favourable dynamic and thermodynamic Thus, an improved genesis potential parameter (IGPP) is introduced in this study which can capture both cyclogenesis and daily evolution of cyclonic systems over NIO. August 1978 and RMS Conference Volume, 1978. cyclogeneis parameter for developing and nondeveloping, index for Bay of Bengal during peak post-monsoon (October–. Since the focus of, the study is on the genesis, intensification and track of the, cyclone, analysis of the role of various therm, cyclone Ockhi was carried out from seven days before, the figures are displayed only for the days when the, observed anomalies were significant (three days before, used to study MJO strength and its phases are obtained, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (. Genesis of Super Cyclone Pam (2015): Modulation of Low-Frequency Large-Scale Circulations and the Ma... A review of the ocean-atmosphere interactions during tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. cyclone development started in the southwest Bay of, Bengal and Cape Comorin area from 27 November 2017, onwards, with GPP values of 20–30 (Figure 3, case of atmosphere-only GPP, the value was less than 20, (50–60) over the Cape Comorin region, indicating, enhanced chance of cyclone development (Figure 3, compared to 20–30 for atmosphere-only GPP (Figure, ocean heat content, was higher than the atmosphere-only, sis from 27 November onwards. since 1925, resulting in a death toll of 844 in India and The present study is to assess the impact of updating realistic SST in TC lifetime on track, intensity and rainfall of TCs. The barren, open, scrub land area has increased from 173.1 km2 to, Fig 10. An integrated Remote sensing and GIS study has been conducted to estimate impact of Ockhi on Landuse and Landcover of Kanyakumari District. Disaster management of an event like Cyclone, Flood or Earthquake etc. This is, in line with a recent study which shows that anthro, ic warming has increased the probability of extremely, mainly steered by the upper level (400–200, anticyclone over eastern parts of the Indian land mass at the, potential temperature and a strong wind shear, thus weaken-, ing have uncertainties due to lack of skilful coupling, of cyclone Ockhi. In general, different functions are required for different types of problems. During the initial stage, it i, sified rapidly from a depression to a cyclonic storm from, 29 November 1800 UTC to 30 November 0300 UTC in a, cially over Lakshadweep Sea, which persisted from 26 to, positive SST anomalies were conducive to persistent in-, crease in humidity over the region, as observed in the, specific humidity anomalies, which were as large as 8–, anomalies potentially led to thermodynamically unstable, conditions, as observed from the increase in difference of, equivalent potential temperature anomalies between 1000, was also consistent with the anomalously high CAPE, depression moved over the region with favourable ther-, modynamic conditions, it intensified rapidly to a deep, depression and further to a cyclone in just 9, Indian Ocean, for the post-monsoon cyclones, the proba-, bility of intensification of a system from a depression to a, from a depression to a cyclonic storm in only 9 h, as seen, in cyclone Ockhi, is a rare occurrence. From this study, it is concluded that geospatial techniques are one of the successful and reliable techniques to map this type of low-lying island to conserve and manage the resources that affected by the geogenic and anthropogenic processes. SHORE Line Changes In Tuticorin Coast -SE of India. impacts of urbanization. Spatial dynamics of LU/LC changes were quantified using three Landsat satellite images: MSS, TM and ETM+. All rights reserved. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. (e-mail: vineetsingh.jrf@tropmet.res.in), intensification of very severe cyclone Ockhi, Cyclone Ockhi in November 2017, was the first very, severe cyclone to form over the Lakshadweep Sea, since 1925, resulting in a death toll of 844 in India and, Sri Lanka. 9). It is hence important to improve the, coupling between atmosphere and ocean, and incorporate, ocean subsurface conditions more precisely into the, cyclone forecasting models in order to improve the, prediction skills with high lead time. While 365 fatalities were reported from, this cyclone and 7654 animals were reported dead in, vember 2017 0300 UTC in the Lakshadweep Sea (subsea, (1990–2016), for post-monsoon (October–December), cyclones in the north Indian Ocean (including Arabian. While warm SSTs in the, tial stages, the persisting clouding and wind-induced, upwelling during the peak stage of the cyclone induced a, suppression of convective activity in the wake of the. It intensified rapid, depression to a cyclone in a span of 9 h and further to, a very severe cyclone in 24 h. The present study sh, that the Madden–Julian Oscillation and warm oceanic, conditions provided favourable dynamic and thermo-. This study evaluates Land Use and Land Cover (LU/LC) changes in Med{stroke}imurje County, Croatia, from 1978-1992, 1992-2007 and 1978-2007 using Landsat satellite images. By 1 December 0900 UTC, it further inten-, Gray, W. M., Tropical cyclone genesis. Finally, the initial wind speed of RI cases is higher and tends to move with a faster translational speed than the non-RI cases. Various large-scale variables associated with the RI cases are compared to those of non-RI cases. conditions for the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. The accuracy of TC landfall forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and NIO as a whole), specific regions of landfall, season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm (CS), and severe cyclonic storm (SCS) or higher intensities) at the time of initiation of forecast and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). The RII technique is developed by combining threshold (index) values of the eight variables for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. Application of post Classification in Landuse & Landcover Stratagies at north Chennai Industrial Are... “Implications of rapid urbanization in north Chennai industrial area: assessment of the impact”, SAR COHERENCE CHANGE DETECTION OF URBAN AREAS AFFECTED BY DISASTERS USING SENTINEL-1 IMAGERY, Shrinking of Vann Island, Gulf of Mannar, SE coast of India: assessing the impacts, Conference: International Journal of Recent Research Aspects. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. storms since climate projections indicate that the In this study, satellite images from Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) were used to quantify the spatio-temporal changes that took place in the coastal zone of Hatiya Island during the specified period. Landsat 8 imageries of Pre and Post Ockhi where compared and changes made by cyclone Ockhi has been estimated in the present study. Plain (IGP). The frequency of natural disasters like floods, cyclones etc have increased significantly over the last decade particularly in the coastal line of Bangladesh which is asserted as the impact of climate change. \n Mean-, thermodynamic enhancement of convective activity over, lone on 29 November 2017. Cyclone Ockhi continues to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm over the Arabian Sea. Mumbai coastal line is on high alert as cyclone Ockhi is about to hit the coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat in next 24 hours. Genesis potential parameter (shaded) without (a-d) and with (e-h) ocean parameters from 26 to 29 November 2017. a, Change in maximum surface wind (kt/day) during the period 30 November-5 December 2017. b, Probability distribution of time taken (h) by a tropical disturbance to intensify from depression to cyclonic storm in the north Indian Ocean during the post-monsoon season for the period 1990-2016. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. About 84 % of the island area is reduced and inundated by the seawater due to sea level rise and anthropogenic activities such as coral sand mining, local tourism and fishing activities. Enlarged impervious area is the most important factor to decreased infiltration of ground water. (2009) is computed based on the product of four variables, namely: vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability and the inverse of vertical wind shear at all grid points over the area. All India Edited by Richa Taneja. started losing strength, and by 5 December 0300 UTC, it, with high lead time and the underestimation of cyclone, intensity show that in spite of the improvement in fore-, casting skills of models, there are still uncertainties in the, cyclone forecasts using state-of-the-art model, uncertainties could be due to the lack of model skill in, representing ocean–atmospheric coupling and ocean, Therefore, the present study aims to understand the. This leads to increase of livelihood demands and various types Greenery and Builtup. The performance evaluation shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system was able to indicate the potential of the system for further intensification. Very high precipitation rate is observed just before Ockhi developed into a VSCS, which gradually suppressed and recorded lower precipitation rates as Ockhi continued to remain mature from 1 to 4 December. Kiliyar Sub-basin of Palar River Basin, Tamil Nadu, GIS.EnviroGeoChimicaActa, 2014.l.1(5):403. Department of Atmo-, GoI, Cyclone forecast, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of, Guha-Sapir, D., EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED Inter, Mohapatra, M., Nayak, D. P., Sharma, M., Sharma, R. P. and. The correlation has significantly enhanced ( r=0.86: significant at >99% level) by using the first differences [year(0) –year(-1)] of the time series data. A Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. It is found that the new GPI is better correlated with the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) compared with the existing GPI which was developed for the north Indian Ocean and presently used by India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi. St, ). Earlier studies, have shown that upper ocean heat content plays an impor-, over the Bay of Bengal, as warm subsurface water helps, compensate the wind-driven mixing-induced cooling dur-, favour intensification in the Bay of Bengal, example is cyclone Nargis in the Bay of Bengal, which, intensified rapidly when it moved over a region of high, SST and atmospheric parameters, upper ocean heat con-, tent also plays a major role in cyclone genesis and inten-, modified GPP (eq. Effortless use of remote sensing and GIS technique is helpful in understanding the situation iii. From this analysis, it is concluded that the barren land is drastically occupied, Specifically, CHANSE project will: (i) estimate surface and groundwater availability under current and future short-term weather predictions and anthropogenic activities within the IGP using a fully coupled, land surface-groundwater modelling setup; (ii) investigate the propagation, in space and time, of interactions of water uses and needs within the natural system by integrating novel consumer and ecological flow demand modules; (iii) provide regional predictions of decadal, seasonal and sub-seasonal monsoon rainfall and flood forecasting for the IGP, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.0 to inform development of alternative water management strategies; (iv) translate the improved understanding of Human And Natural Systems into IGP's water management planning for water, food and ecological security. 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